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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Joe Pyfer won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1464

Elo1553

Israel AdesanyavsJoe PyferUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Saturday, March 28, 2026Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Joe Pyfer won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:18

Style matchupIsrael Adesanya: StrikervsJoe Pyfer: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Joe Pyfer wins(78.9%)

Actual result: Joe Pyfer wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Pyfer at +102 American odds

+$102 profit

$202 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Israel Adesanya enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joe Pyfer enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Joe Pyfer is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Israel Adesanya has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (52.9%).
Israel Adesanya has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Israel Adesanya

Red Corner

Joe Pyfer

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+102

(50%)

1464

Elo

1553

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

203.2 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Israel AdesanyaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Pereira · Nov 22

KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23

vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25

latest

Joe PyferW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Oct 23

vs Jack Hermansson · Feb 24

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 24

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 25

SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Israel AdesanyaMetricJoe Pyfer

4.03

Strikes / min

3.52

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

55%

Strike defense

52%

0.05

TDs / 15 min

1.45

76%

Takedown defense

62%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81evenly matched on net striking+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Israel AdesanyaJoe Pyfer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Israel Adesanya(10 fights)Joe Pyfer(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -88.7|Blue +88.7

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +245.0|Blue -245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Israel AdesanyaTargetJoe Pyfer

By target zone

41% acc · 52%

Head

52% acc · 92%

100% acc · 19%

Body

67% acc · 6%

92% acc · 29%

Leg

33% acc · 3%

By position

57% acc · 100%

Distance

43% acc · 50%

0% acc

Clinch

29% acc · 6%

Ground

76% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Israel Adesanya rounds

even

Joe Pyfer rounds

Round 1Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 2Joe Pyfer edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:43Control

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 75

Sig Strikes

36 / 70

55.5%

Sig Str %

48%

58 / 92

Total Strikes

52 / 90

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 8

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joe Pyfer	9 / 23	9 / 23	1 / 4
1	Israel Adesanya	24 / 42	37 / 56	0 / 0
2	Joe Pyfer	27 / 47	43 / 67	1 / 4
2	Israel Adesanya	18 / 33	21 / 36	0 / 2

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Joe Pyfer

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8