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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Israel Adesanya won · U-DEC R5

Elo1464

Elo1481

Israel AdesanyavsJared CannonierUFC Prediction Result

UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Saturday, July 2, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Israel Adesanya won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupIsrael Adesanya: StrikervsJared Cannonier: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Israel Adesanya wins(76.7%)

Actual result: Israel Adesanya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Israel Adesanya at -540 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jared Cannonier is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Israel Adesanya has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Israel Adesanya

Red Corner

Jared Cannonier

Blue Corner

-540

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+420

(19%)

1464

Elo

1481

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

6'4"

Height

5'11"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Israel AdesanyaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23

vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26

latest

Jared CannonierL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jun 24

vs Caio Borralho · Aug 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 25

vs Michael Page · Aug 25

DECvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Israel AdesanyaMetricJared Cannonier

4.03

Strikes / min

4.42

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

4.35

55%

Strike defense

56%

0.05

TDs / 15 min

0.54

76%

Takedown defense

64%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Israel AdesanyaJared Cannonier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Israel Adesanya(10 fights)Jared Cannonier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.8|Blue +16.8

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Israel AdesanyaTargetJared Cannonier

By target zone

36% acc · 52%

Head

40% acc · 40%

84% acc · 22%

Body

80% acc · 36%

88% acc · 26%

Leg

79% acc · 24%

By position

114

50% acc · 98%

Distance

55% acc · 87%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

86% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Israel Adesanya rounds

even

Jared Cannonier rounds

Round 1Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jared Cannonier edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:29Control

Round 4Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 5Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

116 / 230

Sig Strikes

90 / 157

50%

Sig Str %

58.4%

163 / 277

Total Strikes

141 / 217

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Cannonier	18 / 28	18 / 28	0 / 0
1	Israel Adesanya	22 / 48	22 / 48	0 / 0
2	Israel Adesanya	28 / 48	28 / 48	0 / 0
2	Jared Cannonier	19 / 31	19 / 31	0 / 0
3	Israel Adesanya	17 / 35	35 / 53	0 / 0
3	Jared Cannonier	17 / 36	38 / 62	0 / 2
4	Jared Cannonier	16 / 36	31 / 55	0 / 1
4	Israel Adesanya	24 / 45	40 / 61	0 / 0
5	Israel Adesanya	25 / 54	38 / 67	0 / 0
5	Jared Cannonier	20 / 26	35 / 41	0 / 1

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Jared Cannonier

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21