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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Israel Adesanya won · U-DEC R3

Elo1464

Elo1391

Israel AdesanyavsAnderson SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Saturday, February 9, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Israel Adesanya won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIsrael Adesanya: StrikervsAnderson Silva: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Israel Adesanya wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Israel Adesanya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Israel Adesanya at -515 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Anderson Silva is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Israel Adesanya has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Israel Adesanya

Red Corner

Anderson Silva

Blue Corner

-515

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+410

(20%)

1464

Elo

1391

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'2"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Israel AdesanyaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23

vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26

latest

Anderson SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Michael Bisping · Feb 16

vs Daniel Cormier · Jul 16

vs Derek Brunson · Feb 17

KOvs Jared Cannonier · May 19

KOvs Uriah Hall · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Israel AdesanyaMetricAnderson Silva

4.03

Strikes / min

3.05

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

2.05

55%

Strike defense

60%

0.05

TDs / 15 min

0.50

76%

Takedown defense

69%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Israel AdesanyaAnderson Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Israel Adesanya(10 fights)Anderson Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +73.7|Blue -73.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -630.0|Blue +630.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Israel AdesanyaTargetAnderson Silva

By target zone

34% acc · 42%

Head

33% acc · 52%

41% acc · 14%

Body

67% acc · 26%

94% acc · 45%

Leg

64% acc · 23%

By position

49% acc · 97%

Distance

39% acc · 84%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 16%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Israel Adesanya rounds

even

Anderson Silva rounds

Round 1Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 132

Sig Strikes

31 / 72

49%

Sig Str %

38.7%

65 / 132

Total Strikes

34 / 75

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Anderson Silva	6 / 21	6 / 21	0 / 0
1	Israel Adesanya	20 / 44	20 / 44	0 / 0
2	Anderson Silva	20 / 35	23 / 38	0 / 0
2	Israel Adesanya	20 / 39	20 / 39	0 / 0
3	Anderson Silva	5 / 16	5 / 16	0 / 0
3	Israel Adesanya	25 / 49	25 / 49	0 / 0

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Anderson Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14