← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alex Pereira won · KO/TKO R5

Elo1464

Elo1523

Israel AdesanyavsAlex PereiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 12, 2022New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Alex Pereira won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 2:01

Style matchupIsrael Adesanya: StrikervsAlex Pereira: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Alex Pereira wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Alex Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Pereira at +180 American odds

+$180 profit

$280 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alex Pereira is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Israel Adesanya has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Israel Adesanya

Red Corner

Alex Pereira

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1464

Elo

1523

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Israel AdesanyaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23

vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26

latest

Alex Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 24

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 25

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Israel AdesanyaMetricAlex Pereira

4.03

Strikes / min

5.16

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

55%

Strike defense

53%

0.05

TDs / 15 min

0.11

76%

Takedown defense

79%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81evenly matched on net striking+1.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Israel AdesanyaAlex Pereira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Israel Adesanya(10 fights)Alex Pereira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -59.0|Blue +59.0

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Israel AdesanyaTargetAlex Pereira

By target zone

40% acc · 48%

Head

47% acc · 46%

72% acc · 24%

Body

82% acc · 30%

80% acc · 28%

Leg

63% acc · 24%

By position

52% acc · 90%

Distance

55% acc · 84%

75% acc · 3%

Clinch

82% acc · 15%

60% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Israel Adesanya rounds

even

Alex Pereira rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:14

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:13

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control3:47

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:08

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 5Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:12

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

86 / 162

Sig Strikes

91 / 157

54.2%

Sig Str %

57.2%

119 / 209

Total Strikes

140 / 214

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

6:34

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Pereira	23 / 41	28 / 46	0 / 0
1	Israel Adesanya	23 / 43	23 / 44	0 / 0
2	Alex Pereira	17 / 36	33 / 54	1 / 1
2	Israel Adesanya	20 / 44	30 / 54	0 / 2
3	Alex Pereira	8 / 14	19 / 29	0 / 0
3	Israel Adesanya	14 / 25	31 / 52	1 / 1
4	Israel Adesanya	20 / 35	26 / 44	0 / 1
4	Alex Pereira	15 / 29	30 / 45	0 / 0
5	Alex Pereira	28 / 37	30 / 40	0 / 0
5	Israel Adesanya	9 / 15	9 / 15	0 / 0

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Alex Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12