Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ismail Naurdiev won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1513

Elo1477

Ismail NaurdievvsRyan LoderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Saturday, November 22, 2025Doha, Qatar

Official fight result

Ismail Naurdiev won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:26

Style matchupIsmail Naurdiev: Elusive strikervsRyan Loder: Submission grappler

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Ryan Loder wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Ismail Naurdiev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Loder at +106 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ismail Naurdiev has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ryan Loder has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ryan Loder (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ismail Naurdiev

Red Corner

Ryan Loder

Blue Corner

-124

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+106

(49%)

1513

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ismail Naurdiev

oldest →

vs Chance Rencountre · Jul 19

vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Sep 19

vs Sean Brady · Feb 20

vs Bruno Silva · Oct 24

vs JunYong Park · Jun 25

latest

Ryan Loder

oldest →

KOvs Robert Valentin · Aug 24

KOvs Azamat Bekoev · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ismail NaurdievMetricRyan Loder

3.66

Strikes / min

5.10

1.75

Strikes absorbed / min

2.46

64%

Strike defense

50%

1.48

TDs / 15 min

1.37

73%

Takedown defense

100%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.91evenly matched on net striking+2.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ismail NaurdievRyan Loder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ismail Naurdiev(7 fights)Ryan Loder(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.9|Blue -35.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ismail NaurdievTargetRyan Loder

By target zone

40% acc · 67%

Head

25% acc · 100%

100% acc · 33%

Body

Leg

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ismail Naurdiev rounds

even

Ryan Loder rounds

Round 1Ismail Naurdiev edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 6

Sig Strikes

1 / 4

50%

Sig Str %

25%

3 / 6

Total Strikes

1 / 4

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ryan Loder	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Ismail Naurdiev	3 / 6	3 / 6	0 / 0	0

Ismail Naurdiev

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Ryan Loder

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3