Middleweight

3 Rounds

JunYong Park won · U-DEC R3

Elo1513

Elo1510

Ismail NaurdievvsJunYong ParkUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, June 21, 2025Baku, Azerbaijan

Official fight result

JunYong Park won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIsmail Naurdiev: Elusive strikervsJunYong Park: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: JunYong Park wins(68.4%)

Actual result: JunYong Park wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

JunYong Park at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ismail Naurdiev has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ismail Naurdiev has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ismail Naurdiev

Red Corner

JunYong Park

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1513

Elo

1510

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ismail NaurdievW2 streak

oldest →

vs Chance Rencountre · Jul 19

vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Sep 19

vs Sean Brady · Feb 20

vs Bruno Silva · Oct 24

KOvs Ryan Loder · Nov 25

latest

JunYong Park

oldest →

SUBvs Denis Tiuliulin · Feb 23

SUBvs Albert Duraev · Jul 23

vs Andre Muniz · Dec 23

vs Brad Tavares · Oct 24

vs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ismail NaurdievMetricJunYong Park

3.66

Strikes / min

4.64

1.75

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

64%

Strike defense

51%

1.48

TDs / 15 min

1.69

73%

Takedown defense

54%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.91Δ 1.09 — meaningful gap+0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ismail NaurdievJunYong Park

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ismail Naurdiev(7 fights)JunYong Park(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.1|Blue -3.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ismail NaurdievTargetJunYong Park

By target zone

42% acc · 58%

Head

40% acc · 91%

64% acc · 33%

Body

57% acc · 9%

70% acc · 9%

Leg

By position

51% acc · 88%

Distance

40% acc · 84%

47% acc · 11%

Clinch

40% acc · 9%

25% acc · 1%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ismail Naurdiev rounds

even

JunYong Park rounds

Round 1Ismail Naurdiev edged it

Sig. strikes52

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Ismail Naurdiev edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:25

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:06Control

Round 3JunYong Park edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:31Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 153

Sig Strikes

45 / 109

48.3%

Sig Str %

51.3%

84 / 164

Total Strikes

92 / 187

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 8

50%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

6:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	JunYong Park	26 / 77	28 / 79	0 / 0	0
1	Ismail Naurdiev	52 / 105	54 / 108	0 / 0	0
2	JunYong Park	9 / 13	28 / 37	1 / 6	0
2	Ismail Naurdiev	19 / 37	25 / 45	1 / 2	0
3	JunYong Park	10 / 19	36 / 71	1 / 2	1
3	Ismail Naurdiev	5 / 11	5 / 11	0 / 0	0

Ismail Naurdiev

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

JunYong Park

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9