← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Chance Rencountre won · U-DEC R3

Elo1513

Elo1492

Ismail NaurdievvsChance RencountreUFC Prediction Result

UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Saturday, July 6, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chance Rencountre won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ismail Naurdiev wins(70.2%)

Actual result: Chance Rencountre wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ismail Naurdiev at -570 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ismail Naurdiev has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ismail Naurdiev has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Chance Rencountre (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ismail Naurdiev

Red Corner

Chance Rencountre

Blue Corner

-570

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+435

(19%)

1513

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ismail Naurdiev

oldest →

vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Sep 19

vs Sean Brady · Feb 20

vs Bruno Silva · Oct 24

vs JunYong Park · Jun 25

KOvs Ryan Loder · Nov 25

latest

Chance Rencountre

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 18

SUBvs Kyle Stewart · Jan 19

KOvs Lyman Good · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ismail NaurdievMetricChance Rencountre

3.66

Strikes / min

1.10

1.75

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

64%

Strike defense

49%

1.48

TDs / 15 min

1.35

73%

Takedown defense

16%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.91Δ 4.43 — meaningful gap-2.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ismail NaurdievChance Rencountre

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ismail Naurdiev(7 fights)Chance Rencountre(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.9|Blue -20.9

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ismail NaurdievTargetChance Rencountre

By target zone

41% acc · 62%

Head

6% acc · 25%

73% acc · 38%

Body

33% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

41% acc · 62%

Distance

17% acc · 75%

70% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ismail Naurdiev rounds

even

Chance Rencountre rounds

Round 1Ismail Naurdiev edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:17

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:01Control

Round 2Chance Rencountre edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:55Control

Round 3Ismail Naurdiev edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:05

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:18Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 43

Sig Strikes

4 / 24

65%

Sig Str %

16%

56 / 82

Total Strikes

48 / 112

2 / 2

TDs

2 / 8

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

11:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chance Rencountre	2 / 7	7 / 22	1 / 2
1	Ismail Naurdiev	10 / 20	31 / 43	1 / 1
2	Chance Rencountre	0 / 7	23 / 61	1 / 1
2	Ismail Naurdiev	1 / 1	5 / 6	0 / 0
3	Chance Rencountre	2 / 10	18 / 29	0 / 5
3	Ismail Naurdiev	10 / 22	20 / 33	1 / 1

Ismail Naurdiev

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Chance Rencountre

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4