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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ismail Naurdiev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1513

Elo1453

Ismail NaurdievvsBruno SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Saturday, October 26, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Ismail Naurdiev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIsmail Naurdiev: Elusive strikervsBruno Silva: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Ismail Naurdiev wins(68.9%)

Actual result: Ismail Naurdiev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ismail Naurdiev at -148 American odds

+$68 profit

$168 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ismail Naurdiev has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Ismail Naurdiev

Red Corner

Bruno Silva

Blue Corner

-148

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+124

(45%)

1513

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ismail Naurdiev

oldest →

vs Chance Rencountre · Jul 19

vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Sep 19

vs Sean Brady · Feb 20

vs JunYong Park · Jun 25

KOvs Ryan Loder · Nov 25

latest

Bruno SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · May 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Jun 25

SUBvs HyunSung Park · Oct 25

vs Charles Johnson · Mar 26

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ismail NaurdievMetricBruno Silva

3.66

Strikes / min

3.86

1.75

Strikes absorbed / min

5.35

64%

Strike defense

41%

1.48

TDs / 15 min

0.77

73%

Takedown defense

74%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.91Δ 3.40 — meaningful gap-1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ismail NaurdievBruno Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ismail Naurdiev(7 fights)Bruno Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.6|Blue -59.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +1603.0|Blue -1603.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ismail NaurdievTargetBruno Silva

By target zone

48% acc · 64%

Head

34% acc · 78%

75% acc · 23%

Body

67% acc · 11%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

50% acc · 11%

By position

53% acc · 77%

Distance

35% acc · 83%

69% acc · 17%

Clinch

50% acc · 17%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ismail Naurdiev rounds

even

Bruno Silva rounds

Round 1Ismail Naurdiev edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:03

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ismail Naurdiev edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control2:10

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ismail Naurdiev edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control1:38

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 116

Sig Strikes

36 / 97

55%

Sig Str %

37.7%

107 / 166

Total Strikes

38 / 100

3 / 13

TDs

0 / 3

23.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:51

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bruno Silva	12 / 27	12 / 27	0 / 0
1	Ismail Naurdiev	13 / 27	21 / 38	1 / 5
2	Bruno Silva	14 / 33	16 / 35	0 / 2
2	Ismail Naurdiev	20 / 39	40 / 62	2 / 4
3	Bruno Silva	10 / 37	10 / 38	0 / 1
3	Ismail Naurdiev	33 / 50	46 / 66	0 / 4

Ismail Naurdiev

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Bruno Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights23