← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Ismael Bonfim won · U-DEC R3

Elo1449

Elo1488

Ismael BonfimvsVinc PichelUFC Prediction Result

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · Saturday, May 4, 2024Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Ismael Bonfim won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIsmael Bonfim: Pressure fightervsVinc Pichel: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ismael Bonfim wins(65.2%)

Actual result: Ismael Bonfim wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ismael Bonfim enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Ismael Bonfim has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ismael Bonfim has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ismael Bonfim

Red Corner

Vinc Pichel

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1449

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ismael BonfimL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Jan 23

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 23

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Feb 25

KOvs Chris Padilla · Nov 25

SUBvs Axel Sola · Jul 26

latest

Vinc PichelL2 streak

oldest →

vs Roosevelt Roberts · Jun 19

vs Jim Miller · Aug 20

vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 21

vs Mark Madsen · Apr 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ismael BonfimMetricVinc Pichel

5.51

Strikes / min

3.78

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

3.17

65%

Strike defense

54%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

2.50

76%

Takedown defense

31%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ismael BonfimVinc Pichel

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ismael Bonfim(6 fights)Vinc Pichel(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -39.2|Blue +39.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -448.0|Blue +448.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ismael BonfimTargetVinc Pichel

By target zone

45% acc · 72%

Head

28% acc · 43%

65% acc · 12%

Body

58% acc · 23%

90% acc · 16%

Leg

84% acc · 34%

By position

107

51% acc · 96%

Distance

43% acc · 98%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

67% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ismael Bonfim rounds

even

Vinc Pichel rounds

Round 1Ismael Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:02

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Ismael Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Ismael Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns1

Control0:28

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

111 / 216

Sig Strikes

61 / 142

51%

Sig Str %

43%

112 / 217

Total Strikes

64 / 147

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vinc Pichel	18 / 47	18 / 49	1 / 1
1	Ismael Bonfim	34 / 66	34 / 66	0 / 1
2	Vinc Pichel	22 / 54	22 / 54	0 / 0
2	Ismael Bonfim	36 / 75	36 / 75	0 / 0
3	Vinc Pichel	21 / 41	24 / 44	0 / 1
3	Ismael Bonfim	41 / 75	42 / 76	1 / 1

Ismael Bonfim

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Vinc Pichel

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12