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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Ismael Bonfim won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1449

Elo1504

Terrance McKinney editorial illustration

Ismael BonfimvsTerrance McKinneyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Saturday, January 21, 2023Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Ismael Bonfim won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:17

Style matchupIsmael Bonfim: Pressure fightervsTerrance McKinney: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Terrance McKinney wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Ismael Bonfim wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Terrance McKinney at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ismael Bonfim enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ismael Bonfim is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Terrance McKinney has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Terrance McKinney is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Ismael Bonfim has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Ismael Bonfim has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Terrance McKinney (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Ismael Bonfim

Red Corner

Terrance McKinney

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1449

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ismael BonfimL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 23

vs Vinc Pichel · May 24

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Feb 25

KOvs Chris Padilla · Nov 25

SUBvs Axel Sola · Jul 26

latest

Terrance McKinney

oldest →

KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 25

SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Dec 25

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 26

KOvs King Green · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ismael BonfimMetricTerrance McKinney

5.51

Strikes / min

6.53

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

3.45

65%

Strike defense

43%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

3.31

76%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

2.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+3.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ismael BonfimTerrance McKinney

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ismael Bonfim(6 fights)Terrance McKinney(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -55.0|Blue +55.0

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ismael BonfimTargetTerrance McKinney

By target zone

53% acc · 47%

Head

23% acc · 71%

94% acc · 47%

Body

67% acc · 29%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

62% acc · 71%

Distance

27% acc · 86%

100% acc · 29%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ismael Bonfim rounds

even

Terrance McKinney rounds

Round 1Ismael Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:47

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:11Control

Round 2Ismael Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 49

Sig Strikes

14 / 49

69.5%

Sig Str %

29.5%

38 / 53

Total Strikes

20 / 55

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

2:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Terrance McKinney	7 / 19	13 / 25	0 / 1
1	Ismael Bonfim	17 / 22	21 / 26	1 / 4
2	Terrance McKinney	7 / 30	7 / 30	0 / 1
2	Ismael Bonfim	17 / 27	17 / 27	0 / 0

Ismael Bonfim

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Terrance McKinney

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14