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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Islam Makhachev won · SUB R4
Elo1544
Islam Makhachev editorial illustration
Elo1486
Thiago Moises

Islam MakhachevvsThiago MoisesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · Saturday, July 17, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

SUB · Round 4 · 2:38

Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsThiago Moises: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(78.1%)

Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Islam Makhachev at -900 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Islam Makhachev has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Islam Makhachev (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Islam Makhachev
Red Corner
VS
Thiago Moises
Blue Corner
-900
(90%)
Vegas Odds
+600
(14%)
1544
Elo
1486
34
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23
W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24
W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25
W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25
latest
Thiago MoisesL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24
L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24
W
vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25
L
KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25
L
DECvs Gauge Young · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Islam MakhachevMetricThiago Moises
2.45
Strikes / min
2.52
1.45
Strikes absorbed / min
4.40
61%
Strike defense
52%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
1.37
91%
Takedown defense
52%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00Δ 2.88 — meaningful gap-1.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1629 vs 1547Strikes2.2 vs 2.5Takedowns3.3 vs 1.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 1.20Form1.0 vs 0.8
Islam MakhachevThiago Moises

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701493151515381560← oldermost recent →
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Thiago Moises(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +57.9|Blue -57.9
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Islam MakhachevTargetThiago Moises

By target zone

28
50% acc · 46%
Head
6
20% acc · 46%
31
91% acc · 51%
Body
5
45% acc · 38%
2
100% acc · 3%
Leg
2
67% acc · 15%

By position

22
54% acc · 36%
Distance
9
23% acc · 69%
27
87% acc · 44%
Clinch
3
100% acc · 23%
12
60% acc · 20%
Ground
1
50% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Islam Makhachev rounds
0
even
0
Thiago Moises rounds
Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns1
Control1:23
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:06Control
Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control3:06
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:43Control
Round 3Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control1:42
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:35Control
Round 4Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control2:00
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
61 / 92
Sig Strikes
13 / 44
64%
Sig Str %
30.8%
148 / 194
Total Strikes
18 / 51
3 / 6
TDs
1 / 2
61%
TD %
50%
1
Sub Att
1
1
Rev
0
8:11
Ctrl Time
3:24

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Thiago Moises3 / 135 / 160 / 00
1Islam Makhachev32 / 4354 / 651 / 10
2Islam Makhachev12 / 2143 / 580 / 00
2Thiago Moises4 / 155 / 161 / 10
3Thiago Moises3 / 85 / 110 / 11
3Islam Makhachev10 / 1818 / 271 / 30
4Thiago Moises3 / 83 / 80 / 00
4Islam Makhachev7 / 1033 / 441 / 21

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18

Thiago Moises

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15