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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Islam Makhachev won · SUB R1

Elo1544

Elo1523

Islam MakhachevvsRenato MoicanoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Saturday, January 18, 2025Inglewood, California, USA

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:05

Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsRenato Moicano: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(84.8%)

Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Islam Makhachev at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Islam Makhachev has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Islam Makhachev (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Islam Makhachev

Red Corner

Renato Moicano

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1544

Elo

1523

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Islam MakhachevW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 22

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25

latest

Renato Moicano

oldest →

vs Drew Dober · Feb 24

KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24

vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Islam MakhachevMetricRenato Moicano

2.45

Strikes / min

4.10

1.45

Strikes absorbed / min

3.55

61%

Strike defense

59%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

1.68

91%

Takedown defense

64%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Islam MakhachevRenato Moicano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Renato Moicano(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.1|Blue -21.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Islam MakhachevTargetRenato Moicano

By target zone

29% acc · 83%

Head

11% acc · 22%

50% acc · 17%

Body

60% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 44%

By position

28% acc · 83%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Islam Makhachev rounds

even

Renato Moicano rounds

Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:27

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 19

Sig Strikes

9 / 27

31%

Sig Str %

33%

18 / 31

Total Strikes

18 / 37

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:27

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Renato Moicano	9 / 27	18 / 37	0 / 0	0
1	Islam Makhachev	6 / 19	18 / 31	1 / 2	1

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20