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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Islam Makhachev won · SUB R2

Elo1544

Elo1356

Islam MakhachevvsLeo KuntzUFC Prediction Result

UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · Saturday, May 23, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:38

Model Prediction: Leo Kuntz wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leo Kuntz at +400 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Islam Makhachev threatens submissions; Leo Kuntz has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Islam Makhachev has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Islam Makhachev has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Leo Kuntz has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Islam Makhachev

Red Corner

Leo Kuntz

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1544

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Islam MakhachevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25

vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25

latest

Leo Kuntz

oldest →

vs Tae Hyun Bang · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Islam MakhachevMetricLeo Kuntz

2.45

Strikes / min

1.68

1.45

Strikes absorbed / min

3.80

61%

Strike defense

45%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

1.99

91%

Takedown defense

33%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00Δ 3.12 — meaningful gap-2.12

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Leo Kuntz(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +187.9|Blue -187.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Islam MakhachevTargetLeo Kuntz

By target zone

61% acc · 84%

Head

14% acc · 29%

75% acc · 9%

Body

25% acc · 14%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

57% acc · 57%

By position

59% acc · 53%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

64% acc · 28%

Clinch

0% acc

86% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Islam Makhachev rounds

even

Leo Kuntz rounds

Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control1:42

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:18

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 50

Sig Strikes

7 / 25

63.5%

Sig Str %

23.5%

53 / 80

Total Strikes

11 / 30

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Leo Kuntz	6 / 19	9 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Islam Makhachev	21 / 33	35 / 52	2 / 4	0
2	Leo Kuntz	1 / 6	2 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Islam Makhachev	11 / 17	18 / 28	1 / 1	1

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Leo Kuntz

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights2