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Elo1544
Islam Makhachev editorial illustration
Elo1541
Ian Machado Garry editorial illustration

Islam MakhachevvsIan Machado GarryUFC Prediction

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Saturday, August 15, 2026Philadelphia, USA

Fight begins in
Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsIan Machado Garry: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Fight Detective pick

We select Islam Makhachev to win. Informational only—not a guarantee or betting advice.

Market-implied probability
Islam Makhachev
75.1% market-implied
vs Ian Machado Garry (24.9%)
Model estimate
Islam Makhachev
56.7% model estimate
Internal research signal — not a betting edge.
Market odds
Islam Makhachev-367 (78.6%)
Ian Machado Garry+284 (26.0%)

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Ian Machado Garry has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Islam Makhachev
Red Corner
VS
Ian Machado Garry
Blue Corner
-349
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+267
(27%)
1544
Elo
1541
34
Age
28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'3"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23
W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24
W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25
W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25
latest
Ian Machado GarryW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Geoff Neal · Feb 24
W
vs Michael Page · Jun 24
L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24
W
vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25
W
vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Islam MakhachevMetricIan Machado Garry
2.45
Strikes / min
4.78
1.45
Strikes absorbed / min
2.86
61%
Strike defense
52%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
0.92
91%
Takedown defense
80%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00evenly matched on net striking+1.92
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901508152515431560← oldermost recent →
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.9|Blue -2.9
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: KO / TKO.

KO / TKO76%

Historical win share: Ian Machado Garry earned 29% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission24%

Historical win share: Islam Makhachev earned 47% of wins by submission.

Decision0%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

The Pick

Vegas favorite
Islam Makhachev
Odds
-367

Market-implied probability

Islam Makhachev 75%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Islam Makhachev (model pick · research)$127
Ian Machado Garry$384

75% market-implied · model 57% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC at -367 · never rewritten

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Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18

Ian Machado Garry

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights8