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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Islam Makhachev won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1544
Islam Makhachev editorial illustration
Elo1366
Gleison Tibau

Islam MakhachevvsGleison TibauUFC Prediction Result

UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Saturday, January 20, 2018Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:57

Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsGleison Tibau: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Islam Makhachev at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Gleison Tibau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Gleison Tibau (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Islam Makhachev
Red Corner
VS
Gleison Tibau
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
1544
Elo
1366
34
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23
W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24
W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25
W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25
latest
Gleison TibauL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Piotr Hallmann · Sep 14
W
vs Norman Parke · Jan 15
L
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15
L
vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15
L
vs Desmond Green · Jun 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Islam MakhachevMetricGleison Tibau
2.45
Strikes / min
1.95
1.45
Strikes absorbed / min
2.51
61%
Strike defense
63%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
4.08
91%
Takedown defense
92%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00Δ 1.56 — meaningful gap-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1544 vs 1552Strikes22.8 vs 22.0Takedowns3.0 vs 3.2Sub Atts0.75 vs 0.65Form0.8 vs -0.1
Islam MakhachevGleison Tibau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Gleison Tibau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +178.0|Blue -178.0
Recent Form
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -462.0|Blue +462.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Islam MakhachevTargetGleison Tibau

By target zone

2
40% acc · 67%
Head
1
50% acc · 50%
1
100% acc · 33%
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 50%

By position

2
50% acc · 67%
Distance
2
50% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
50% acc · 33%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Islam Makhachev rounds
0
even
0
Gleison Tibau rounds
Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
3 / 6
Sig Strikes
2 / 4
50%
Sig Str %
50%
3 / 6
Total Strikes
2 / 4
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gleison Tibau2 / 42 / 40 / 00
1Islam Makhachev3 / 63 / 60 / 00

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights18