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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Islam Makhachev won · SUB R5
Elo1544
Islam Makhachev editorial illustration
Elo1494

Islam MakhachevvsDustin PoirierUFC Prediction Result

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Saturday, June 1, 2024Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

SUB · Round 5 · 2:42

Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsDustin Poirier: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(80.2%)

Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Islam Makhachev threatens submissions; Dustin Poirier has lost 44% of fights by sub.
  • Islam Makhachev has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Islam Makhachev
Red Corner
VS
Dustin Poirier
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1544
Elo
1494
34
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 22
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23
W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25
W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25
latest
Dustin Poirier
oldest →
L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 21
W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23
W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24
L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Islam MakhachevMetricDustin Poirier
2.45
Strikes / min
5.24
1.45
Strikes absorbed / min
4.57
61%
Strike defense
52%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
1.15
91%
Takedown defense
64%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1727 vs 1690Strikes2.6 vs 5.3Takedowns3.2 vs 1.2Sub Atts1.10 vs 1.30Form1.1 vs 0.4
Islam MakhachevDustin Poirier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +49.9|Blue -49.9
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +140.0|Blue -140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Islam MakhachevTargetDustin Poirier

By target zone

81
55% acc · 92%
Head
53
33% acc · 72%
7
100% acc · 8%
Body
18
90% acc · 24%
0
0% acc
Leg
3
75% acc · 4%

By position

71
52% acc · 81%
Distance
51
32% acc · 69%
11
79% acc · 13%
Clinch
23
88% acc · 31%
6
100% acc · 7%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Islam Makhachev rounds
0
even
0
Dustin Poirier rounds
Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control4:23
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns1
Control0:49
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Round 3Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control2:10
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 4Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control2:28
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Round 5Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control0:33
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
88 / 156
Sig Strikes
74 / 183
59.2%
Sig Str %
37.2%
147 / 222
Total Strikes
104 / 218
5 / 16
TDs
0 / 0
53.2%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
10:23
Ctrl Time
0:30

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dustin Poirier1 / 511 / 190 / 00
1Islam Makhachev6 / 946 / 531 / 10
2Dustin Poirier24 / 5832 / 660 / 00
2Islam Makhachev26 / 4630 / 501 / 40
3Dustin Poirier15 / 3616 / 370 / 00
3Islam Makhachev18 / 2424 / 331 / 11
4Islam Makhachev20 / 4429 / 531 / 60
4Dustin Poirier23 / 6134 / 730 / 00
5Dustin Poirier11 / 2311 / 230 / 00
5Islam Makhachev18 / 3318 / 331 / 41

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights31