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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Islam Makhachev won · SUB

Elo1544

Elo1514

Islam MakhachevvsDrew DoberUFC Prediction Result

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Saturday, March 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

SUB

Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(72.7%)

Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Islam Makhachev at -460 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Islam Makhachev threatens submissions; Drew Dober has lost 36% of fights by sub.
Islam Makhachev has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Islam Makhachev

Red Corner

Drew Dober

Blue Corner

-460

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+365

(22%)

1544

Elo

1514

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Islam MakhachevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25

vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25

latest

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Islam MakhachevMetricDrew Dober

2.45

Strikes / min

4.48

1.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

61%

Strike defense

53%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

0.61

91%

Takedown defense

58%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Islam MakhachevDrew Dober

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.9|Blue -29.9

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +249.0|Blue -249.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Islam MakhachevTargetDrew Dober

By target zone

55% acc · 80%

Head

33% acc · 50%

100% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 30%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

36% acc · 33%

Distance

43% acc · 60%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

90% acc · 60%

Ground

60% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Islam Makhachev rounds

even

Drew Dober rounds

Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control3:42

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control4:28

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:16

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 25

Sig Strikes

10 / 20

55.7%

Sig Str %

48%

102 / 119

Total Strikes

14 / 24

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:26

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Drew Dober	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Islam Makhachev	1 / 5	34 / 42	1 / 1	1
2	Drew Dober	2 / 5	5 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Islam Makhachev	9 / 14	52 / 59	1 / 2	0
3	Drew Dober	5 / 8	6 / 9	0 / 0	0
3	Islam Makhachev	5 / 6	16 / 18	1 / 1	1

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26