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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Islam Makhachev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1544

Elo1387

Islam MakhachevvsDavi RamosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Saturday, September 7, 2019Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsDavi Ramos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Islam Makhachev at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Islam Makhachev

Red Corner

Davi Ramos

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+315

(24%)

1544

Elo

1387

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Islam MakhachevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25

vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25

latest

Davi Ramos

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Dec 17

SUBvs Nick Hein · May 18

SUBvs John Gunther · Nov 18

vs Austin Hubbard · May 19

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Islam MakhachevMetricDavi Ramos

2.45

Strikes / min

2.64

1.45

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

61%

Strike defense

56%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

1.95

91%

Takedown defense

83%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00Δ 1.80 — meaningful gap-0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Islam MakhachevDavi Ramos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Davi Ramos(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +157.0|Blue -157.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Islam MakhachevTargetDavi Ramos

By target zone

40% acc · 74%

Head

12% acc · 71%

70% acc · 16%

Body

7% acc · 14%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

39% acc · 67%

Distance

9% acc · 71%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

61% acc · 26%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Islam Makhachev rounds

even

Davi Ramos rounds

Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 3Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control4:39

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 95

Sig Strikes

7 / 58

46.7%

Sig Str %

7.7%

88 / 148

Total Strikes

27 / 80

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:39

Ctrl Time

0:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Davi Ramos	2 / 24	2 / 24	0 / 0
1	Islam Makhachev	10 / 25	10 / 25	0 / 1
2	Davi Ramos	5 / 32	6 / 33	0 / 1
2	Islam Makhachev	19 / 47	24 / 52	0 / 0
3	Davi Ramos	0 / 2	19 / 23	0 / 0
3	Islam Makhachev	14 / 23	54 / 71	0 / 0

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Davi Ramos

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7