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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Islam Makhachev won · SUB R1

Elo1544

Elo1484

Islam MakhachevvsDan HookerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Saturday, October 30, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:25

Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsDan Hooker: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(84.1%)

Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Islam Makhachev at -590 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Islam Makhachev has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (54.1%).
Dan Hooker has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Islam Makhachev

Red Corner

Dan Hooker

Blue Corner

-590

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+425

(19%)

1544

Elo

1484

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Islam MakhachevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25

vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25

latest

Dan HookerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24

SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Islam MakhachevMetricDan Hooker

2.45

Strikes / min

4.82

1.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.94

61%

Strike defense

49%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

0.68

91%

Takedown defense

77%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Islam MakhachevDan Hooker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Dan Hooker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.6|Blue -59.6

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Islam MakhachevTargetDan Hooker

By target zone

67% acc · 100%

Head

10% acc · 25%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 75%

By position

67% acc · 100%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Islam Makhachev rounds

even

Dan Hooker rounds

Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:48

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 3

Sig Strikes

4 / 13

66%

Sig Str %

30%

13 / 14

Total Strikes

19 / 28

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:48

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dan Hooker	4 / 13	19 / 28	0 / 0	0
1	Islam Makhachev	2 / 3	13 / 14	1 / 1	2

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24