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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Islam Makhachev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1544

Elo1531

Islam MakhachevvsArman TsarukyanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Saturday, April 20, 2019Saint Petersburg, Saint Petersburg, Russia

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsArman Tsarukyan: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(85.6%)

Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Islam Makhachev at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Islam Makhachev has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Islam Makhachev

Red Corner

Arman Tsarukyan

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1544

Elo

1531

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Islam MakhachevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25

vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25

latest

Arman TsarukyanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Damir Ismagulov · Dec 22

KOvs Joaquim Silva · Jun 23

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Dec 23

vs Charles Oliveira · Apr 24

SUBvs Dan Hooker · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Islam MakhachevMetricArman Tsarukyan

2.45

Strikes / min

3.85

1.45

Strikes absorbed / min

1.80

61%

Strike defense

54%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

3.26

91%

Takedown defense

75%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+2.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Islam MakhachevArman Tsarukyan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Arman Tsarukyan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.8|Blue -12.8

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.7|Blue +48.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Islam MakhachevTargetArman Tsarukyan

By target zone

58% acc · 50%

Head

20% acc · 38%

100% acc · 43%

Body

47% acc · 54%

50% acc · 7%

Leg

33% acc · 8%

By position

40% acc · 29%

Distance

18% acc · 46%

100% acc · 57%

Clinch

78% acc · 54%

100% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Islam Makhachev rounds

even

Arman Tsarukyan rounds

Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:45

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:52

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control2:30

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 20

Sig Strikes

13 / 43

74.3%

Sig Str %

31.3%

47 / 53

Total Strikes

60 / 90

4 / 9

TDs

1 / 12

52.7%

TD %

4.7%

Sub Att

Rev

6:07

Ctrl Time

1:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Arman Tsarukyan	4 / 12	14 / 22	1 / 7
1	Islam Makhachev	6 / 9	20 / 23	1 / 4
2	Arman Tsarukyan	4 / 11	35 / 42	0 / 2
2	Islam Makhachev	4 / 7	12 / 15	1 / 3
3	Arman Tsarukyan	5 / 20	11 / 26	0 / 3
3	Islam Makhachev	4 / 4	15 / 15	2 / 2

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Arman Tsarukyan

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11