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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Islam Makhachev won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1544

Elo1521

Islam MakhachevvsAlexander VolkanovskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Saturday, October 21, 2023Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:06

Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsAlexander Volkanovski: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Islam Makhachev at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Islam Makhachev has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Islam Makhachev (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Islam Makhachev

Red Corner

Alexander Volkanovski

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1544

Elo

1521

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Islam MakhachevW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 22

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25

vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25

latest

Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak

oldest →

vs Islam Makhachev · Feb 23

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25

vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Islam MakhachevMetricAlexander Volkanovski

2.45

Strikes / min

5.99

1.45

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

61%

Strike defense

58%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

1.63

91%

Takedown defense

68%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap+2.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Islam MakhachevAlexander Volkanovski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.0|Blue -23.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Islam MakhachevTargetAlexander Volkanovski

By target zone

81% acc · 54%

Head

0% acc

82% acc · 38%

Body

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

75% acc · 75%

By position

64% acc · 29%

Distance

60% acc · 75%

89% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Islam Makhachev rounds

even

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:19

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 29

Sig Strikes

4 / 6

82%

Sig Str %

66%

39 / 46

Total Strikes

11 / 18

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexander Volkanovski	4 / 6	11 / 18	0 / 0	0
1	Islam Makhachev	24 / 29	39 / 46	0 / 1	0

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18