Featherweight

3 Rounds

Isaac Dulgarian won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Elo1488

Isaac DulgarianvsBrendon MarotteUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Saturday, September 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Isaac Dulgarian won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:19

Model Prediction: Isaac Dulgarian wins(87.4%)

Actual result: Isaac Dulgarian wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Isaac Dulgarian at -2100 American odds

+$5 profit

$105 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Isaac Dulgarian is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Brendon Marotte has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Isaac Dulgarian threatens submissions; Brendon Marotte has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Isaac Dulgarian has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Isaac Dulgarian

Red Corner

Brendon Marotte

Blue Corner

-2100

(95%)

Vegas Odds

+1100

(8%)

1490

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Isaac DulgarianL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Francis Marshall · Aug 23

vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 24

SUBvs Yadier del Valle · Nov 25

latest

Brendon Marotte

oldest →

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Oct 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Isaac DulgarianMetricBrendon Marotte

2.99

Strikes / min

0.41

1.65

Strikes absorbed / min

5.70

40%

Strike defense

28%

4.57

TDs / 15 min

0.00

Takedown defense

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.34Δ 6.63 — meaningful gap-5.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Isaac DulgarianBrendon Marotte

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Isaac Dulgarian(4 fights)Brendon Marotte(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.7|Blue -2.7

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Isaac DulgarianTargetBrendon Marotte

By target zone

73% acc · 100%

Head

33% acc · 67%

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 5%

Distance

33% acc · 67%

Clinch

75% acc · 95%

Ground

100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Isaac Dulgarian rounds

even

Brendon Marotte rounds

Round 1Isaac Dulgarian edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control4:57

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Isaac Dulgarian edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control4:15

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 56

Sig Strikes

3 / 7

86%

Sig Str %

66.5%

102 / 147

Total Strikes

22 / 27

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:12

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brendon Marotte	2 / 6	9 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Isaac Dulgarian	39 / 54	57 / 94	1 / 1	1
2	Brendon Marotte	1 / 1	13 / 14	0 / 0	0
2	Isaac Dulgarian	2 / 2	45 / 53	1 / 1	1

Isaac Dulgarian

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Brendon Marotte

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2