← All fights/Event page

Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Melissa Mullins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1466

Elo1468

Irina AlekseevavsMelissa MullinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Saturday, October 14, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Melissa Mullins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Irina Alekseeva wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Melissa Mullins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Irina Alekseeva threatens submissions; Melissa Mullins has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Melissa Mullins has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Irina Alekseeva

Red Corner

Melissa Mullins

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1466

Elo

1468

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Irina AlekseevaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Stephanie Egger · Apr 23

vs Klaudia Sygula · Jun 25

SUBvs Bia Mesquita · Oct 25

latest

Melissa MullinsL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nora Cornolle · Apr 24

KOvs Klaudia Sygula · Nov 24

vs Daria Zhelezniakova · Jun 25

SUBvs Bia Mesquita · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Irina AlekseevaMetricMelissa Mullins

3.42

Strikes / min

3.71

5.02

Strikes absorbed / min

4.39

45%

Strike defense

52%

0.38

TDs / 15 min

2.03

50%

Takedown defense

85%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.60evenly matched on net striking-0.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Irina AlekseevaMelissa Mullins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Irina Alekseeva(4 fights)Melissa Mullins(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Irina AlekseevaTargetMelissa Mullins

By target zone

32% acc · 48%

Head

53% acc · 90%

29% acc · 4%

Body

83% acc · 10%

79% acc · 48%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 92%

Distance

55% acc · 81%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

40% acc · 4%

Ground

50% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Irina Alekseeva rounds

even

Melissa Mullins rounds

Round 1Irina Alekseeva edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:39

Knockdowns1

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:26Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Melissa Mullins edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:43Control

Round 3Melissa Mullins edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:11

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 108

Sig Strikes

52 / 95

41.7%

Sig Str %

54.7%

60 / 126

Total Strikes

87 / 148

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:50

Ctrl Time

8:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Melissa Mullins	23 / 37	32 / 54	0 / 0
1	Irina Alekseeva	30 / 60	37 / 70	0 / 2
2	Melissa Mullins	12 / 21	24 / 38	0 / 0
2	Irina Alekseeva	8 / 20	10 / 25	0 / 1
3	Melissa Mullins	17 / 37	31 / 56	0 / 1
3	Irina Alekseeva	10 / 28	13 / 31	1 / 1

Irina Alekseeva

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4

Melissa Mullins

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5