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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Irene Aldana won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1493

Irene AldanavsVanessa MeloUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Saturday, September 21, 2019Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Irene Aldana won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIrene Aldana: Pressure fightervsVanessa Melo: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Irene Aldana wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Irene Aldana wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Irene Aldana at -525 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Irene Aldana

Red Corner

Vanessa Melo

Blue Corner

-525

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+415

(19%)

1499

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Irene Aldana

oldest →

KOvs Yana Kunitskaya · Jul 21

KOvs Macy Chiasson · Sep 22

vs Amanda Nunes · Jun 23

vs Karol Rosa · Dec 23

vs Norma Dumont · Sep 24

latest

Vanessa Melo

oldest →

vs Tracy Cortez · Nov 19

vs Karol Rosa · Jul 20

vs Sarah Moras · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Irene AldanaMetricVanessa Melo

5.19

Strikes / min

3.48

6.64

Strikes absorbed / min

6.13

56%

Strike defense

59%

0.15

TDs / 15 min

0.00

77%

Takedown defense

71%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.45Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-2.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Irene AldanaVanessa Melo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Irene Aldana(10 fights)Vanessa Melo(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.1|Blue -6.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -45.9|Blue +45.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Irene AldanaTargetVanessa Melo

By target zone

29% acc · 63%

Head

23% acc · 71%

62% acc · 17%

Body

32% acc · 13%

89% acc · 20%

Leg

73% acc · 16%

By position

124

37% acc · 99%

Distance

27% acc · 100%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Irene Aldana rounds

even

Vanessa Melo rounds

Round 1Irene Aldana edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Irene Aldana edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Irene Aldana edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

125 / 333

Sig Strikes

68 / 250

37%

Sig Str %

27%

127 / 335

Total Strikes

68 / 250

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vanessa Melo	16 / 86	16 / 86	0 / 0
1	Irene Aldana	45 / 108	45 / 108	0 / 0
2	Vanessa Melo	27 / 84	27 / 84	0 / 1
2	Irene Aldana	36 / 102	36 / 102	0 / 0
3	Vanessa Melo	25 / 80	25 / 80	0 / 0
3	Irene Aldana	44 / 123	46 / 125	0 / 0

Irene Aldana

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Vanessa Melo

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights4