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Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Norma Dumont won · U-DEC R3
Elo1499
Irene Aldana
Elo1516
Norma Dumont

Irene AldanavsNorma DumontUFC Prediction Result

UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · Saturday, September 14, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Norma Dumont won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIrene Aldana: Pressure fightervsNorma Dumont: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Norma Dumont wins(70.2%)

Actual result: Norma Dumont wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Norma Dumont at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Irene Aldana
Red Corner
VS
Norma Dumont
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
1499
Elo
1516
38
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Irene Aldana
oldest →
L
vs Holly Holm · Oct 20
W
KOvs Yana Kunitskaya · Jul 21
W
KOvs Macy Chiasson · Sep 22
L
vs Amanda Nunes · Jun 23
W
vs Karol Rosa · Dec 23
latest
Norma Dumont
oldest →
W
vs Karol Rosa · Apr 23
W
vs Chelsea Chandler · Jul 23
W
vs Germaine de Randamie · Apr 24
W
vs Ketlen Vieira · Nov 25
L
DECvs Joselyne Edwards · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Irene AldanaMetricNorma Dumont
5.19
Strikes / min
3.85
6.64
Strikes absorbed / min
2.33
56%
Strike defense
64%
0.15
TDs / 15 min
1.43
77%
Takedown defense
71%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.45Δ 2.97 — meaningful gap+1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1559 vs 1580Strikes5.2 vs 3.9Takedowns0.1 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.00Form0.4 vs 0.9
Irene AldanaNorma Dumont

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Irene Aldana(10 fights)Norma Dumont(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -17.3|Blue +17.3
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Irene AldanaTargetNorma Dumont

By target zone

47
32% acc · 68%
Head
89
39% acc · 56%
12
52% acc · 17%
Body
34
81% acc · 21%
10
67% acc · 14%
Leg
36
95% acc · 23%

By position

67
37% acc · 97%
Distance
156
51% acc · 98%
2
67% acc · 3%
Clinch
3
75% acc · 2%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Irene Aldana rounds
0
even
3
Norma Dumont rounds
Round 1Norma Dumont edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Norma Dumont edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
58Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Norma Dumont edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:05
69Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
69 / 183
Sig Strikes
159 / 309
36.3%
Sig Str %
49.7%
69 / 183
Total Strikes
159 / 309
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 5
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Norma Dumont32 / 7532 / 750 / 00
1Irene Aldana12 / 4612 / 460 / 00
2Norma Dumont58 / 11458 / 1140 / 20
2Irene Aldana25 / 5925 / 590 / 00
3Norma Dumont69 / 12069 / 1200 / 30
3Irene Aldana32 / 7832 / 780 / 00

Irene Aldana

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights14

Norma Dumont

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights12