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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Irene Aldana won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1499

Elo1474

Irene AldanavsMacy ChiassonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Saturday, September 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Irene Aldana won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:21

Style matchupIrene Aldana: Pressure fightervsMacy Chiasson: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Macy Chiasson wins(66.0%)

Actual result: Irene Aldana wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Macy Chiasson at +165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Macy Chiasson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Irene Aldana has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Irene Aldana has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Macy Chiasson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Irene Aldana

Red Corner

Macy Chiasson

Blue Corner

-195

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1499

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Irene Aldana

oldest →

vs Holly Holm · Oct 20

KOvs Yana Kunitskaya · Jul 21

vs Amanda Nunes · Jun 23

vs Karol Rosa · Dec 23

vs Norma Dumont · Sep 24

latest

Macy ChiassonL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Pannie Kianzad · Mar 24

KOvs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jun 24

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 25

vs Yana Santos · Oct 25

vs Ailin Perez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Irene AldanaMetricMacy Chiasson

5.19

Strikes / min

3.21

6.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

56%

Strike defense

44%

0.15

TDs / 15 min

1.87

77%

Takedown defense

62%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.45Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap+0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Irene AldanaMacy Chiasson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Irene Aldana(10 fights)Macy Chiasson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.9|Blue -24.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +301.0|Blue -301.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Irene AldanaTargetMacy Chiasson

By target zone

42% acc · 65%

Head

33% acc · 67%

100% acc · 14%

Body

88% acc · 18%

89% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

37% acc · 51%

Distance

41% acc · 79%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

88% acc · 41%

Ground

42% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Irene Aldana rounds

even

Macy Chiasson rounds

Round 1Irene Aldana edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:55

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Macy Chiasson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:05

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:51Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:20Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 71

Sig Strikes

39 / 94

51%

Sig Str %

40.7%

51 / 85

Total Strikes

72 / 140

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 8

—

TD %

38.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:00

Ctrl Time

3:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Macy Chiasson	13 / 33	13 / 33	0 / 3	0
1	Irene Aldana	25 / 47	29 / 51	0 / 0	2
2	Macy Chiasson	17 / 39	50 / 85	2 / 3	0
2	Irene Aldana	9 / 12	16 / 19	0 / 0	0
3	Macy Chiasson	9 / 22	9 / 22	1 / 2	0
3	Irene Aldana	3 / 12	6 / 15	0 / 0	0

Irene Aldana

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Macy Chiasson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14