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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Irene Aldana won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1493

Irene AldanavsKarol RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Saturday, December 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Irene Aldana won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIrene Aldana: Pressure fightervsKarol Rosa: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Karol Rosa wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Irene Aldana wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Tale of the Tape

Irene Aldana

Red Corner

Karol Rosa

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1499

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Irene AldanaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Holly Holm · Oct 20

KOvs Yana Kunitskaya · Jul 21

KOvs Macy Chiasson · Sep 22

vs Amanda Nunes · Jun 23

vs Norma Dumont · Sep 24

latest

Karol Rosa

oldest →

vs Yana Santos · Jul 23

vs Pannie Kianzad · Aug 24

vs Ailin Perez · Jan 25

vs Nora Cornolle · Aug 25

DECvs Luana Santos · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Irene AldanaMetricKarol Rosa

5.19

Strikes / min

5.88

6.64

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

56%

Strike defense

49%

0.15

TDs / 15 min

1.17

77%

Takedown defense

70%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.45Δ 2.74 — meaningful gap+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Irene AldanaKarol Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Irene Aldana(10 fights)Karol Rosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.1|Blue -6.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Irene AldanaTargetKarol Rosa

By target zone

122

44% acc · 84%

Head

103

43% acc · 50%

71% acc · 14%

Body

55% acc · 3%

75% acc · 2%

Leg

93% acc · 47%

By position

145

47% acc · 100%

Distance

204

58% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Irene Aldana rounds

even

Karol Rosa rounds

Round 1Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes54

Takedowns0

Control0:00

67Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes61

Takedowns0

Control0:00

92Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

145 / 308

Sig Strikes

204 / 350

45.7%

Sig Str %

57.3%

145 / 308

Total Strikes

204 / 350

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Karol Rosa	45 / 89	45 / 89	0 / 0
1	Irene Aldana	30 / 88	30 / 88	0 / 0
2	Karol Rosa	67 / 108	67 / 108	0 / 0
2	Irene Aldana	54 / 109	54 / 109	0 / 0
3	Karol Rosa	92 / 153	92 / 153	0 / 1
3	Irene Aldana	61 / 111	61 / 111	0 / 0

Irene Aldana

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Karol Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12