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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Irene Aldana won · SUB R3

Elo1499

Elo1409

Irene AldanavsBethe CorreiaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · Saturday, May 11, 2019Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Irene Aldana won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:24

Style matchupIrene Aldana: Pressure fightervsBethe Correia: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Irene Aldana wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Irene Aldana wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Irene Aldana at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Irene Aldana has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Irene Aldana

Red Corner

Bethe Correia

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+325

(24%)

1499

Elo

1409

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Irene Aldana

oldest →

KOvs Yana Kunitskaya · Jul 21

KOvs Macy Chiasson · Sep 22

vs Amanda Nunes · Jun 23

vs Karol Rosa · Dec 23

vs Norma Dumont · Sep 24

latest

Bethe CorreiaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jessica Eye · Sep 16

KOvs Holly Holm · Jun 17

vs Sijara Eubanks · Sep 19

vs Pannie Kianzad · Jul 20

vs Karol Rosa · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Irene AldanaMetricBethe Correia

5.19

Strikes / min

4.37

6.64

Strikes absorbed / min

4.93

56%

Strike defense

56%

0.15

TDs / 15 min

0.39

77%

Takedown defense

85%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.45evenly matched on net striking-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Irene AldanaBethe Correia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Irene Aldana(10 fights)Bethe Correia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +90.1|Blue -90.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -448.0|Blue +448.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Irene AldanaTargetBethe Correia

By target zone

30% acc · 81%

Head

30% acc · 53%

65% acc · 13%

Body

56% acc · 22%

83% acc · 6%

Leg

87% acc · 25%

By position

33% acc · 96%

Distance

41% acc · 99%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Irene Aldana rounds

even

Bethe Correia rounds

Round 1Irene Aldana edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Bethe Correia edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:02

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 3Irene Aldana edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:08

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 247

Sig Strikes

81 / 196

33.7%

Sig Str %

39.7%

84 / 248

Total Strikes

81 / 196

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bethe Correia	16 / 49	16 / 49	0 / 0	0
1	Irene Aldana	21 / 81	22 / 82	0 / 0	0
2	Bethe Correia	39 / 82	39 / 82	0 / 1	0
2	Irene Aldana	31 / 96	31 / 96	0 / 0	0
3	Bethe Correia	26 / 65	26 / 65	0 / 1	0
3	Irene Aldana	31 / 70	31 / 70	0 / 0	1

Irene Aldana

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Bethe Correia

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights11