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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Philipe Lins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1498

Elo1511

Ion CutelabavsPhilipe LinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Saturday, March 9, 2024Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Philipe Lins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIon Cutelaba: WrestlervsPhilipe Lins: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Philipe Lins wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Philipe Lins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Philipe Lins at +114 American odds

+$114 profit

$214 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Philipe Lins enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Philipe Lins has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ion Cutelaba (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ion Cutelaba

Red Corner

Philipe Lins

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+114

(47%)

1498

Elo

1511

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ion Cutelaba

oldest →

vs Ivan Erslan · Sep 24

SUBvs Ibo Aslan · Feb 25

vs Modestas Bukauskas · May 25

SUBvs Oumar Sy · Mar 26

KOvs Navajo Stirling · Jun 26

latest

Philipe LinsW3 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · May 20

KOvs Tanner Boser · Jun 20

vs Marcin Prachnio · Apr 22

KOvs Ovince Saint Preux · Feb 23

vs Maxim Grishin · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ion CutelabaMetricPhilipe Lins

4.23

Strikes / min

3.80

3.28

Strikes absorbed / min

3.59

47%

Strike defense

46%

3.76

TDs / 15 min

1.65

75%

Takedown defense

100%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95evenly matched on net striking+0.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ion CutelabaPhilipe Lins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ion Cutelaba(10 fights)Philipe Lins(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.7|Blue +13.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ion CutelabaTargetPhilipe Lins

By target zone

40% acc · 70%

Head

45% acc · 55%

100% acc · 19%

Body

78% acc · 10%

83% acc · 11%

Leg

96% acc · 34%

By position

47% acc · 89%

Distance

57% acc · 85%

71% acc · 11%

Clinch

63% acc · 7%

Ground

71% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ion Cutelaba rounds

even

Philipe Lins rounds

Round 1Philipe Lins edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:01

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Philipe Lins edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:13

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:26Control

Round 3Philipe Lins edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:02

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 97

Sig Strikes

67 / 115

50%

Sig Str %

57.3%

119 / 171

Total Strikes

73 / 121

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 7

TD %

27.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

5:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Philipe Lins	33 / 50	34 / 51	0 / 2
1	Ion Cutelaba	23 / 42	24 / 43	0 / 0
2	Philipe Lins	19 / 29	22 / 32	1 / 2
2	Ion Cutelaba	13 / 20	27 / 35	0 / 1
3	Philipe Lins	15 / 36	17 / 38	1 / 3
3	Ion Cutelaba	11 / 35	68 / 93	0 / 0

Ion Cutelaba

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights20

Philipe Lins

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6