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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ion Cutelaba won · SUB R1

Elo1498

Elo1500

Ion CutelabavsOumar SyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Saturday, March 14, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ion Cutelaba won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:24

Style matchupIon Cutelaba: WrestlervsOumar Sy: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Ion Cutelaba wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Ion Cutelaba wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ion Cutelaba at +250 American odds

+$250 profit

$350 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Oumar Sy has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Ion Cutelaba (53.5%).
Oumar Sy has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ion Cutelaba

Red Corner

Oumar Sy

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1498

Elo

1500

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

210.82 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ion CutelabaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Philipe Lins · Mar 24

vs Ivan Erslan · Sep 24

SUBvs Ibo Aslan · Feb 25

vs Modestas Bukauskas · May 25

KOvs Navajo Stirling · Jun 26

latest

Oumar Sy

oldest →

SUBvs Tuco Tokkos · May 24

vs Da Woon Jung · Sep 24

vs Alonzo Menifield · Jun 25

KOvs Brendson Ribeiro · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ion CutelabaMetricOumar Sy

4.23

Strikes / min

3.41

3.28

Strikes absorbed / min

1.87

47%

Strike defense

66%

3.76

TDs / 15 min

2.45

75%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95evenly matched on net striking+1.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ion CutelabaOumar Sy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ion Cutelaba(10 fights)Oumar Sy(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.8|Blue +2.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ion CutelabaTargetOumar Sy

By target zone

44% acc · 29%

Head

14% acc · 20%

80% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 43%

Leg

100% acc · 80%

By position

67% acc · 71%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

75% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ion Cutelaba rounds

even

Oumar Sy rounds

Round 1Ion Cutelaba edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:27

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 20

Sig Strikes

5 / 11

70%

Sig Str %

45%

40 / 49

Total Strikes

5 / 11

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:27

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Oumar Sy	5 / 11	5 / 11	0 / 1	0
1	Ion Cutelaba	14 / 20	40 / 49	1 / 2	1

Ion Cutelaba

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights20

Oumar Sy

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach83.0"

Fights5