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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Navajo Stirling won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1498

Elo1600

Ion CutelabavsNavajo StirlingUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · Saturday, June 20, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Navajo Stirling won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:23

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Navajo Stirling

Style matchupIon Cutelaba: WrestlervsNavajo Stirling: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Navajo Stirling wins(59.0%)

Actual result: Navajo Stirling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Navajo Stirling enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Navajo Stirling has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Navajo Stirling has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ion Cutelaba

Red Corner

Navajo Stirling

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1498

Elo

1600

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ion Cutelaba

oldest →

vs Philipe Lins · Mar 24

vs Ivan Erslan · Sep 24

SUBvs Ibo Aslan · Feb 25

vs Modestas Bukauskas · May 25

SUBvs Oumar Sy · Mar 26

latest

Navajo StirlingW4 streak

oldest →

vs Tuco Tokkos · Dec 24

vs Ivan Erslan · May 25

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Sep 25

KOvs Bruno Lopes · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ion CutelabaMetricNavajo Stirling

4.23

Strikes / min

6.25

3.28

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

47%

Strike defense

58%

3.76

TDs / 15 min

0.98

75%

Takedown defense

82%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 2.63 — meaningful gap+3.58

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ion Cutelaba(10 fights)Navajo Stirling(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -102.4|Blue +102.4

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ion CutelabaTargetNavajo Stirling

By target zone

28% acc · 53%

Head

70% acc · 73%

75% acc · 16%

Body

92% acc · 21%

75% acc · 32%

Leg

75% acc · 6%

By position

34% acc · 74%

Distance

70% acc · 60%

50% acc · 11%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

100% acc · 16%

Ground

83% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ion Cutelaba rounds

even

Navajo Stirling rounds

Round 1Navajo Stirling edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control1:53

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 2Navajo Stirling edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control1:08

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 48

Sig Strikes

52 / 70

41%

Sig Str %

72%

58 / 88

Total Strikes

59 / 77

5 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

80%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:01

Ctrl Time

1:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Navajo Stirling	16 / 24	23 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Ion Cutelaba	6 / 26	34 / 55	2 / 2	1
2	Navajo Stirling	36 / 46	36 / 46	0 / 1	0
2	Ion Cutelaba	13 / 22	24 / 33	3 / 5	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 45% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Ion Cutelaba

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights20

Navajo Stirling

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights6