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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Magomed Ankalaev won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1498
Ion Cutelaba
Elo1538
Magomed Ankalaev editorial illustration

Ion CutelabavsMagomed AnkalaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, February 29, 2020Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Magomed Ankalaev won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:38

Style matchupIon Cutelaba: WrestlervsMagomed Ankalaev: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Ion Cutelaba wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Magomed Ankalaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ion Cutelaba at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Ion Cutelaba (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ion Cutelaba
Red Corner
VS
Magomed Ankalaev
Blue Corner
+185
(35%)
Vegas Odds
-225
(69%)
1498
Elo
1538
32
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ion Cutelaba
oldest →
W
vs Ivan Erslan · Sep 24
W
SUBvs Ibo Aslan · Feb 25
L
vs Modestas Bukauskas · May 25
W
SUBvs Oumar Sy · Mar 26
L
KOvs Navajo Stirling · Jun 26
latest
Magomed Ankalaev
oldest →
W
KOvs Johnny Walker · Jan 24
W
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 24
W
vs Alex Pereira · Mar 25
L
KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 25
W
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ion CutelabaMetricMagomed Ankalaev
4.23
Strikes / min
3.65
3.28
Strikes absorbed / min
2.59
47%
Strike defense
56%
3.76
TDs / 15 min
0.79
75%
Takedown defense
87%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95evenly matched on net striking+1.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1523 vs 1531Strikes5.3 vs 3.3Takedowns2.6 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 0.8
Ion CutelabaMagomed Ankalaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Ion Cutelaba(10 fights)Magomed Ankalaev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -40.4|Blue +40.4
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ion CutelabaTargetMagomed Ankalaev

By target zone

3
38% acc · 60%
Head
6
60% acc · 75%
0
0% acc
Body
1
100% acc · 13%
2
100% acc · 40%
Leg
1
100% acc · 13%

By position

5
45% acc · 100%
Distance
8
67% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Ion Cutelaba rounds
0
even
1
Magomed Ankalaev rounds
Round 1Magomed Ankalaev edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
5 / 11
Sig Strikes
8 / 12
45%
Sig Str %
66%
5 / 11
Total Strikes
8 / 12
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Magomed Ankalaev8 / 128 / 120 / 00
1Ion Cutelaba5 / 115 / 110 / 00

Ion Cutelaba

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights20

Magomed Ankalaev

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights16