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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ion Cutelaba won · S-DEC R3

Elo1498

Elo1485

Ion CutelabavsIvan ErslanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Saturday, September 28, 2024Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Ion Cutelaba won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ion Cutelaba wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Ion Cutelaba wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ion Cutelaba at -102 American odds

+$98 profit

$198 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Ion Cutelaba (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ion Cutelaba

Red Corner

Ivan Erslan

Blue Corner

-102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-118

(54%)

1498

Elo

1485

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ion Cutelaba

oldest →

vs Philipe Lins · Mar 24

SUBvs Ibo Aslan · Feb 25

vs Modestas Bukauskas · May 25

SUBvs Oumar Sy · Mar 26

KOvs Navajo Stirling · Jun 26

latest

Ivan Erslan

oldest →

vs Navajo Stirling · May 25

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Sep 25

DECvs Tuco Tokkos · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ion CutelabaMetricIvan Erslan

4.23

Strikes / min

2.55

3.28

Strikes absorbed / min

5.01

47%

Strike defense

53%

3.76

TDs / 15 min

0.45

75%

Takedown defense

61%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 3.41 — meaningful gap-2.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ion CutelabaIvan Erslan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ion Cutelaba(10 fights)Ivan Erslan(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.0|Blue -13.0

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ion CutelabaTargetIvan Erslan

By target zone

26% acc · 53%

Head

49% acc · 74%

64% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 18%

92% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

34% acc · 84%

Distance

54% acc · 85%

86% acc · 13%

Clinch

83% acc · 13%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ion Cutelaba rounds

even

Ivan Erslan rounds

Round 1Ivan Erslan edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:25

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ion Cutelaba edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control1:07

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:26Control

Round 3Ivan Erslan edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:27

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:53Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 120

Sig Strikes

39 / 69

46.7%

Sig Str %

48.3%

80 / 161

Total Strikes

63 / 101

3 / 12

TDs

1 / 2

21.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:59

Ctrl Time

5:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ivan Erslan	24 / 39	25 / 40	0 / 0
1	Ion Cutelaba	18 / 72	22 / 77	0 / 3
2	Ivan Erslan	14 / 27	17 / 31	0 / 1
2	Ion Cutelaba	24 / 43	44 / 66	2 / 5
3	Ivan Erslan	1 / 3	21 / 30	1 / 1
3	Ion Cutelaba	3 / 5	14 / 18	1 / 4

Ion Cutelaba

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights20

Ivan Erslan

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3