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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ion Cutelaba won · SUB R1

Elo1498

Elo1468

Ion CutelabavsIbo AslanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Saturday, February 22, 2025Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Ion Cutelaba won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:51

Style matchupIon Cutelaba: WrestlervsIbo Aslan: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ion Cutelaba wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Ion Cutelaba wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ion Cutelaba at +180 American odds

+$180 profit

$280 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Ion Cutelaba (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ion Cutelaba

Red Corner

Ibo Aslan

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-215

(68%)

1498

Elo

1468

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ion Cutelaba

oldest →

vs Philipe Lins · Mar 24

vs Ivan Erslan · Sep 24

vs Modestas Bukauskas · May 25

SUBvs Oumar Sy · Mar 26

KOvs Navajo Stirling · Jun 26

latest

Ibo AslanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anton Turkalj · Mar 24

KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Oct 24

vs Billy Elekana · Jul 25

KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ion CutelabaMetricIbo Aslan

4.23

Strikes / min

5.75

3.28

Strikes absorbed / min

3.96

47%

Strike defense

56%

3.76

TDs / 15 min

0.00

75%

Takedown defense

87%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95evenly matched on net striking+1.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ion CutelabaIbo Aslan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ion Cutelaba(10 fights)Ibo Aslan(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.7|Blue -29.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ion CutelabaTargetIbo Aslan

By target zone

38% acc · 71%

Head

50% acc · 93%

67% acc · 14%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

38% acc · 71%

Distance

44% acc · 80%

50% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

100% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ion Cutelaba rounds

even

Ibo Aslan rounds

Round 1Ion Cutelaba edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control1:06

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 31

Sig Strikes

15 / 30

45%

Sig Str %

50%

17 / 39

Total Strikes

15 / 30

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ibo Aslan	15 / 30	15 / 30	0 / 0	0
1	Ion Cutelaba	14 / 31	17 / 39	2 / 4	1

Ion Cutelaba

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights20

Ibo Aslan

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights5