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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Impa Kasanganay won · SUB

Elo1494

Elo1406

Impa KasanganayvsSasha PalatnikovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · Saturday, April 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Impa Kasanganay won

SUB

Style matchupImpa Kasanganay: Pressure fightervsSasha Palatnikov: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sasha Palatnikov wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Impa Kasanganay wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sasha Palatnikov at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sasha Palatnikov is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Impa Kasanganay has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Impa Kasanganay threatens submissions; Sasha Palatnikov has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Sasha Palatnikov (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Impa Kasanganay

Red Corner

Sasha Palatnikov

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1494

Elo

1406

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Impa KasanganayL2 streak

oldest →

vs Maki Pitolo · Aug 20

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 20

KOvs Carlston Harris · Sep 21

latest

Sasha Palatnikov

oldest →

KOvs Louis Cosce · Nov 20

SUBvs Ramiz Brahimaj · Aug 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Impa KasanganayMetricSasha Palatnikov

4.96

Strikes / min

6.69

3.66

Strikes absorbed / min

5.44

58%

Strike defense

52%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

0.72

66%

Takedown defense

70%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.30evenly matched on net striking+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Impa KasanganaySasha Palatnikov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Impa Kasanganay(4 fights)Sasha Palatnikov(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +87.7|Blue -87.7

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Impa KasanganayTargetSasha Palatnikov

By target zone

42% acc · 85%

Head

38% acc · 46%

Body

100% acc · 31%

67% acc · 15%

Leg

75% acc · 23%

By position

38% acc · 77%

Distance

44% acc · 54%

100% acc · 23%

Clinch

75% acc · 46%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Impa Kasanganay rounds

even

Sasha Palatnikov rounds

Round 1Impa Kasanganay edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:36

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 2Impa Kasanganay edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control0:18

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 29

Sig Strikes

13 / 24

47%

Sig Str %

52%

21 / 41

Total Strikes

31 / 43

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

37.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:54

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sasha Palatnikov	12 / 22	30 / 41	0 / 0	0
1	Impa Kasanganay	12 / 27	19 / 38	1 / 4	0
2	Sasha Palatnikov	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0
2	Impa Kasanganay	1 / 2	2 / 3	1 / 2	1

Impa Kasanganay

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4

Sasha Palatnikov

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3