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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Joaquin Buckley won · KO/TKO

Elo1494

Elo1516

Impa KasanganayvsJoaquin BuckleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, October 10, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Joaquin Buckley won

KO/TKO

Style matchupImpa Kasanganay: Pressure fightervsJoaquin Buckley: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Impa Kasanganay wins(70.1%)

Actual result: Joaquin Buckley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Impa Kasanganay at -265 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joaquin Buckley is a KO finisher (73% of wins). Impa Kasanganay has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Impa Kasanganay

Red Corner

Joaquin Buckley

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1494

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Impa Kasanganay

oldest →

vs Maki Pitolo · Aug 20

SUBvs Sasha Palatnikov · Apr 21

KOvs Carlston Harris · Sep 21

latest

Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24

KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24

vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25

DECvs Sean Brady · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Impa KasanganayMetricJoaquin Buckley

4.96

Strikes / min

3.62

3.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

58%

Strike defense

58%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

1.43

66%

Takedown defense

70%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.30evenly matched on net striking+0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Impa KasanganayJoaquin Buckley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Impa Kasanganay(4 fights)Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.1|Blue +22.1

Recent Form

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Impa KasanganayTargetJoaquin Buckley

By target zone

27% acc · 61%

Head

24% acc · 66%

63% acc · 18%

Body

50% acc · 17%

86% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

35% acc · 100%

Distance

28% acc · 86%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

Ground

67% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Impa Kasanganay rounds

even

Joaquin Buckley rounds

Round 1Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Round 2Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 79

Sig Strikes

29 / 94

32.5%

Sig Str %

29%

31 / 85

Total Strikes

29 / 95

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joaquin Buckley	21 / 61	21 / 62	1 / 2
1	Impa Kasanganay	22 / 55	25 / 61	0 / 0
2	Joaquin Buckley	8 / 33	8 / 33	0 / 0
2	Impa Kasanganay	6 / 24	6 / 24	0 / 0

Impa Kasanganay

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4

Joaquin Buckley

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17