Welterweight

3 Rounds

Carlston Harris won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1494

Elo1476

Impa KasanganayvsCarlston HarrisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Saturday, September 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Carlston Harris won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:38

Style matchupImpa Kasanganay: Pressure fightervsCarlston Harris: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Carlston Harris wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Carlston Harris wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlston Harris at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlston Harris enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Impa Kasanganay

Red Corner

Carlston Harris

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1494

Elo

1476

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Impa Kasanganay

oldest →

vs Maki Pitolo · Aug 20

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 20

SUBvs Sasha Palatnikov · Apr 21

latest

Carlston HarrisL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jared Gooden · Mar 23

SUBvs Jeremiah Wells · Aug 23

KOvs Khaos Williams · May 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 25

DECvs Jake Matthews · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Impa KasanganayMetricCarlston Harris

4.96

Strikes / min

3.79

3.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

58%

Strike defense

54%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

1.46

66%

Takedown defense

55%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.30evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Impa KasanganayCarlston Harris

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Impa Kasanganay(4 fights)Carlston Harris(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.7|Blue -17.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Impa KasanganayTargetCarlston Harris

By target zone

25% acc · 83%

Head

43% acc · 67%

100% acc · 17%

Body

86% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

29% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 58%

Clinch

Ground

91% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Impa Kasanganay rounds

even

Carlston Harris rounds

Round 1Carlston Harris edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 21

Sig Strikes

24 / 46

28%

Sig Str %

52%

6 / 21

Total Strikes

24 / 48

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carlston Harris	24 / 46	24 / 48	0 / 1	0
1	Impa Kasanganay	6 / 21	6 / 21	0 / 0	0

Impa Kasanganay

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4

Carlston Harris

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8