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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jan Blachowicz won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1497

Elo1493

Ilir LatifivsJan BlachowiczUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · Saturday, October 4, 2014Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Jan Blachowicz won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:58

Style matchupIlir Latifi: WrestlervsJan Blachowicz: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ilir Latifi wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Jan Blachowicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ilir Latifi at -265 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ilir Latifi has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jan Blachowicz has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ilir Latifi

Red Corner

Jan Blachowicz

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1497

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ilir Latifi

oldest →

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Aug 19

vs Derrick Lewis · Feb 20

vs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

vs Aleksei Oleinik · Oct 22

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 23

latest

Jan Blachowicz

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22

vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23

vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25

vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ilir LatifiMetricJan Blachowicz

2.05

Strikes / min

3.55

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

56%

Strike defense

52%

2.11

TDs / 15 min

0.98

100%

Takedown defense

69%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.88Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ilir LatifiJan Blachowicz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ilir Latifi(10 fights)Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.7|Blue -3.7

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ilir LatifiTargetJan Blachowicz

By target zone

33% acc · 100%

Head

60% acc · 69%

Body

50% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 46%

Clinch

Ground

88% acc · 54%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ilir Latifi rounds

even

Jan Blachowicz rounds

Round 1Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 6

Sig Strikes

13 / 20

33%

Sig Str %

65%

2 / 6

Total Strikes

14 / 21

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jan Blachowicz	13 / 20	14 / 21	0 / 0	0
1	Ilir Latifi	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 0	0

Ilir Latifi

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21