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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ilir Latifi won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1495

Ilir LatifivsAleksei OleinikUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Saturday, October 1, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ilir Latifi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIlir Latifi: WrestlervsAleksei Oleinik: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Aleksei Oleinik wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Ilir Latifi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksei Oleinik at +165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ilir Latifi has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ilir Latifi has 63pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Aleksei Oleinik has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ilir Latifi

Red Corner

Aleksei Oleinik

Blue Corner

-195

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1497

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ilir Latifi

oldest →

vs Corey Anderson · Dec 18

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Aug 19

vs Derrick Lewis · Feb 20

vs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 23

latest

Aleksei Oleinik

oldest →

vs Fabricio Werdum · May 20

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21

SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ilir LatifiMetricAleksei Oleinik

2.05

Strikes / min

3.29

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.80

56%

Strike defense

44%

2.11

TDs / 15 min

1.82

100%

Takedown defense

37%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.88evenly matched on net striking-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ilir LatifiAleksei Oleinik

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ilir Latifi(10 fights)Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +308.0|Blue -308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ilir LatifiTargetAleksei Oleinik

By target zone

80% acc · 84%

Head

20% acc · 32%

75% acc · 16%

Body

78% acc · 25%

Leg

80% acc · 43%

By position

67% acc · 47%

Distance

41% acc · 96%

83% acc · 13%

Clinch

25% acc · 4%

100% acc · 39%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ilir Latifi rounds

even

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

Round 1Ilir Latifi edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control4:16

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ilir Latifi edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:45

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ilir Latifi edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:28

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 48

Sig Strikes

28 / 70

78%

Sig Str %

38%

74 / 88

Total Strikes

68 / 113

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

61%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:29

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aleksei Oleinik	4 / 12	24 / 34	0 / 0
1	Ilir Latifi	11 / 14	45 / 51	1 / 1
2	Aleksei Oleinik	17 / 30	30 / 44	0 / 0
2	Ilir Latifi	17 / 21	19 / 24	1 / 2
3	Aleksei Oleinik	7 / 28	14 / 35	0 / 0
3	Ilir Latifi	10 / 13	10 / 13	1 / 3

Ilir Latifi

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17