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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Chris Cariaso won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1352

Elo1355

Iliarde SantosvsChris CariasoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · Wednesday, October 9, 2013Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Chris Cariaso won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:31

Style matchupIliarde Santos: Well-roundedvsChris Cariaso: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Chris Cariaso wins(73.0%)

Actual result: Chris Cariaso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Cariaso at +315 American odds

+$315 profit

$415 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Iliarde Santos has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Iliarde Santos

Red Corner

Chris Cariaso

Blue Corner

-345

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+315

(24%)

1352

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'3"

170.18 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Iliarde SantosL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Iuri Alcantara · May 13

vs Ian McCall · Aug 13

latest

Chris CariasoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14

vs Louis Smolka · May 14

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Iliarde SantosMetricChris Cariaso

3.00

Strikes / min

3.35

6.10

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

57%

Strike defense

61%

1.66

TDs / 15 min

1.11

83%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.10Δ 4.22 — meaningful gap+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Iliarde SantosChris Cariaso

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Iliarde Santos(3 fights)Chris Cariaso(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.0|Blue +3.0

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -2.8|Blue +2.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Iliarde SantosTargetChris Cariaso

By target zone

32% acc · 66%

Head

40% acc · 78%

83% acc · 29%

Body

53% acc · 17%

50% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

35% acc · 80%

Distance

38% acc · 76%

83% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 15%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

71% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Iliarde Santos rounds

even

Chris Cariaso rounds

Round 1Iliarde Santos edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control1:58

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:21

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 88

Sig Strikes

54 / 124

39.5%

Sig Str %

40%

46 / 101

Total Strikes

61 / 132

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:19

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Cariaso	10 / 29	11 / 31	0 / 0
1	Iliarde Santos	10 / 25	17 / 34	2 / 2
2	Chris Cariaso	44 / 95	50 / 101	0 / 1
2	Iliarde Santos	25 / 63	29 / 67	0 / 2

Iliarde Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3

Chris Cariaso

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13