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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Ilia Topuria won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1520
Ilia Topuria
Elo1517
Max Holloway editorial illustration

Ilia TopuriavsMax HollowayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Saturday, October 26, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Ilia Topuria won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:34

Style matchupIlia Topuria: Submission grapplervsMax Holloway: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Ilia Topuria wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Ilia Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ilia Topuria at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ilia Topuria
Red Corner
VS
Max Holloway
Blue Corner
-305
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
1520
Elo
1517
29
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'11"
175.26 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ilia Topuria
oldest →
W
SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 22
W
vs Josh Emmett · Jun 23
W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24
W
KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jun 26
latest
Max Holloway
oldest →
W
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Aug 23
W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24
W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25
L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26
W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ilia TopuriaMetricMax Holloway
4.81
Strikes / min
6.91
3.83
Strikes absorbed / min
4.61
64%
Strike defense
58%
1.96
TDs / 15 min
0.23
93%
Takedown defense
81%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.98Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap+2.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1619 vs 1695Strikes4.7 vs 7.2Takedowns2.0 vs 0.3Sub Atts1.10 vs 0.30Form1.1 vs 0.9
Ilia TopuriaMax Holloway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901505152015351550← oldermost recent →
Ilia Topuria(10 fights)Max Holloway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.3|Blue -2.3
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -2.4|Blue +2.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ilia TopuriaTargetMax Holloway

By target zone

49
43% acc · 65%
Head
47
31% acc · 59%
11
79% acc · 15%
Body
13
43% acc · 16%
15
94% acc · 20%
Leg
19
83% acc · 24%

By position

71
51% acc · 95%
Distance
79
39% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
4
100% acc · 5%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Ilia Topuria rounds
1
even
1
Max Holloway rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns2
Control0:41
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:00
35Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Ilia Topuria edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
75 / 144
Sig Strikes
79 / 204
52.3%
Sig Str %
41.7%
78 / 147
Total Strikes
84 / 209
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:45
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Max Holloway30 / 7535 / 800 / 00
1Ilia Topuria22 / 4724 / 492 / 20
2Max Holloway35 / 10235 / 1020 / 00
2Ilia Topuria32 / 6232 / 620 / 00
3Max Holloway14 / 2714 / 270 / 00
3Ilia Topuria21 / 3522 / 360 / 00

Ilia Topuria

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights9

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights33