Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ilia Topuria enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Ilia Topuria is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Justin Gaethje has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Ilia Topuria has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ilia Topuria has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ilia TopuriaW5 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 22W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24W
KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24W
KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25 Justin GaethjeW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ilia TopuriaMetricJustin Gaethje
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.98Δ 1.55 — meaningful gap-0.57
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ilia Topuria(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -20.8|Blue +20.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.8|Blue +1.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +210.0|Blue -210.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ilia TopuriaTargetJustin Gaethje
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Ilia Topuria edged it
Sig. strikes44
Takedowns0
Control2:02
Knockdowns1
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:05
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:47Control
Round 4Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control0:25
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:45Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
