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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Ilia Topuria won · KO/TKO

Elo1520

Elo1495

Ilia TopuriavsDamon JacksonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · Saturday, December 5, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ilia Topuria won

KO/TKO

Style matchupIlia Topuria: Submission grapplervsDamon Jackson: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Ilia Topuria wins(83.6%)

Actual result: Ilia Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ilia Topuria at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ilia Topuria has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ilia Topuria has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Damon Jackson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Ilia Topuria

Red Corner

Damon Jackson

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1520

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ilia Topuria

oldest →

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24

KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jun 26

latest

Damon JacksonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dan Ige · Jan 23

vs Billy Quarantillo · Aug 23

vs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 24

vs Chepe Mariscal · Aug 24

SUBvs Jim Miller · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ilia TopuriaMetricDamon Jackson

4.81

Strikes / min

2.96

3.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

64%

Strike defense

49%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

2.30

93%

Takedown defense

37%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.98Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ilia TopuriaDamon Jackson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ilia Topuria(10 fights)Damon Jackson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.3|Blue -24.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ilia TopuriaTargetDamon Jackson

By target zone

35% acc · 39%

Head

25% acc · 63%

64% acc · 58%

Body

50% acc · 31%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

50% acc · 97%

Distance

30% acc · 94%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ilia Topuria rounds

even

Damon Jackson rounds

Round 1Ilia Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 63

Sig Strikes

16 / 52

49%

Sig Str %

30%

31 / 64

Total Strikes

16 / 53

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Damon Jackson	16 / 52	16 / 53	0 / 0	0
1	Ilia Topuria	31 / 63	31 / 64	0 / 0	0

Ilia Topuria

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9

Damon Jackson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12