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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Ilia Topuria won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1520

Elo1521

Ilia TopuriavsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Saturday, June 28, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ilia Topuria won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:27

Style matchupIlia Topuria: Submission grapplervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Ilia Topuria wins(79.6%)

Actual result: Ilia Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ilia Topuria at -405 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Oliveira enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ilia Topuria has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ilia Topuria has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Charles Oliveira has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ilia Topuria

Red Corner

Charles Oliveira

Blue Corner

-405

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1520

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ilia Topuria

oldest →

SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 22

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24

KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jun 26

latest

Charles OliveiraW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Jun 23

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ilia TopuriaMetricCharles Oliveira

4.81

Strikes / min

3.23

3.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

64%

Strike defense

48%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

2.29

93%

Takedown defense

54%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.98evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ilia TopuriaCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ilia Topuria(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ilia TopuriaTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

74% acc · 81%

Head

38% acc · 33%

100% acc · 14%

Body

50% acc · 22%

33% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 44%

By position

75% acc · 86%

Distance

57% acc · 89%

Clinch

50% acc · 11%

60% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ilia Topuria rounds

even

Charles Oliveira rounds

Round 1Ilia Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:01

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 29

Sig Strikes

9 / 16

72%

Sig Str %

56%

24 / 32

Total Strikes

10 / 18

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:01

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Oliveira	9 / 16	10 / 18	0 / 2	0
1	Ilia Topuria	21 / 29	24 / 32	0 / 0	0

Ilia Topuria

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36