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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ildemar Alcantara won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1358

Ildemar AlcantaravsLeandro SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · Saturday, June 8, 2013Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Ildemar Alcantara won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ildemar Alcantara wins(83.1%)

Actual result: Ildemar Alcantara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ildemar Alcantara at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leandro Silva has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ildemar Alcantara has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Ildemar Alcantara has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ildemar Alcantara

Red Corner

Leandro Silva

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1490

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'9"

198.12 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ildemar Alcantara

oldest →

vs Igor Araujo · Oct 13

vs Albert Tumenov · Feb 14

vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 14

vs Richardson Moreira · Jan 15

vs Kevin Casey · Jul 15

latest

Leandro SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Charlie Brenneman · Nov 14

vs Lewis Gonzalez · Jun 15

vs Efrain Escudero · Nov 15

vs Jason Saggo · Jun 16

vs Rustam Khabilov · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ildemar AlcantaraMetricLeandro Silva

1.93

Strikes / min

2.39

2.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.08

50%

Strike defense

63%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

1.76

81%

Takedown defense

65%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.70Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap+0.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ildemar AlcantaraLeandro Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ildemar Alcantara(7 fights)Leandro Silva(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.5|Blue -132.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ildemar AlcantaraTargetLeandro Silva

By target zone

19% acc · 52%

Head

41% acc · 38%

100% acc · 42%

Body

46% acc · 12%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

89% acc · 50%

By position

30% acc · 91%

Distance

57% acc · 98%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

33% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ildemar Alcantara rounds

even

Leandro Silva rounds

Round 1Ildemar Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:20

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:02Control

Round 2Leandro Silva edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:08

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Leandro Silva edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control1:34

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 105

Sig Strikes

50 / 87

32.7%

Sig Str %

56.3%

56 / 134

Total Strikes

63 / 100

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 6

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:02

Ctrl Time

1:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Leandro Silva	5 / 9	15 / 19	0 / 2
1	Ildemar Alcantara	8 / 20	22 / 38	1 / 1
2	Leandro Silva	19 / 35	19 / 35	0 / 1
2	Ildemar Alcantara	13 / 46	13 / 46	0 / 0
3	Leandro Silva	26 / 43	29 / 46	0 / 3
3	Ildemar Alcantara	12 / 39	21 / 50	2 / 2

Ildemar Alcantara

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7

Leandro Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7