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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Igor Araujo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1355

Ildemar AlcantaravsIgor AraujoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · Wednesday, October 9, 2013Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Igor Araujo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ildemar Alcantara wins(74.7%)

Actual result: Igor Araujo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ildemar Alcantara at -345 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ildemar Alcantara has 59pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ildemar Alcantara

Red Corner

Igor Araujo

Blue Corner

-345

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+315

(24%)

1490

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ildemar Alcantara

oldest →

vs Leandro Silva · Jun 13

vs Albert Tumenov · Feb 14

vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 14

vs Richardson Moreira · Jan 15

vs Kevin Casey · Jul 15

latest

Igor AraujoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Danny Mitchell · Mar 14

KOvs George Sullivan · Sep 14

vs Sean Strickland · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ildemar AlcantaraMetricIgor Araujo

1.93

Strikes / min

1.52

2.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

50%

Strike defense

49%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

0.86

81%

Takedown defense

22%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.70evenly matched on net striking-1.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ildemar AlcantaraIgor Araujo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ildemar Alcantara(7 fights)Igor Araujo(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.4|Blue -135.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ildemar AlcantaraTargetIgor Araujo

By target zone

48% acc · 61%

Head

43% acc · 81%

83% acc · 28%

Body

40% acc · 10%

50% acc · 11%

Leg

33% acc · 10%

By position

21% acc · 17%

Distance

30% acc · 29%

78% acc · 39%

Clinch

50% acc · 14%

80% acc · 44%

Ground

48% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ildemar Alcantara rounds

even

Igor Araujo rounds

Round 1Ildemar Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:07

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:01Control

Round 2Ildemar Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control2:24

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 3Igor Araujo edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:03Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 33

Sig Strikes

21 / 51

50.3%

Sig Str %

39.3%

33 / 53

Total Strikes

128 / 166

3 / 3

TDs

1 / 6

100%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

4:31

Ctrl Time

7:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Igor Araujo	5 / 14	25 / 36	0 / 3	0
1	Ildemar Alcantara	10 / 13	20 / 27	1 / 1	1
2	Igor Araujo	11 / 24	36 / 51	0 / 1	1
2	Ildemar Alcantara	6 / 12	10 / 17	2 / 2	0
3	Igor Araujo	5 / 13	67 / 79	1 / 2	0
3	Ildemar Alcantara	2 / 8	3 / 9	0 / 0	2

Ildemar Alcantara

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7

Igor Araujo

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4