← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ildemar Alcantara won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1358

Ildemar AlcantaravsAlbert TumenovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · Saturday, February 15, 2014Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Ildemar Alcantara won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIldemar Alcantara: WrestlervsAlbert Tumenov: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Ildemar Alcantara wins(73.2%)

Actual result: Ildemar Alcantara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ildemar Alcantara at +195 American odds

+$195 profit

$295 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Ildemar Alcantara has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ildemar Alcantara

Red Corner

Albert Tumenov

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-215

(68%)

1490

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

198.12 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ildemar Alcantara

oldest →

vs Leandro Silva · Jun 13

vs Igor Araujo · Oct 13

vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 14

vs Richardson Moreira · Jan 15

vs Kevin Casey · Jul 15

latest

Albert TumenovL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Nico Musoke · Jan 15

KOvs Alan Jouban · Oct 15

vs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 16

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · May 16

SUBvs Leon Edwards · Oct 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ildemar AlcantaraMetricAlbert Tumenov

1.93

Strikes / min

3.76

2.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.34

50%

Strike defense

58%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

0.20

81%

Takedown defense

75%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.70Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ildemar AlcantaraAlbert Tumenov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ildemar Alcantara(7 fights)Albert Tumenov(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.2|Blue -132.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ildemar AlcantaraTargetAlbert Tumenov

By target zone

51% acc · 62%

Head

42% acc · 84%

59% acc · 20%

Body

60% acc · 9%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

44% acc · 46%

Distance

33% acc · 38%

93% acc · 28%

Clinch

86% acc · 19%

65% acc · 26%

Ground

50% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ildemar Alcantara rounds

even

Albert Tumenov rounds

Round 1Albert Tumenov edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control1:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:13Control

Round 2Ildemar Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns2

Control4:22

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ildemar Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 87

Sig Strikes

32 / 71

57.3%

Sig Str %

53%

75 / 115

Total Strikes

50 / 99

4 / 7

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

5:22

Ctrl Time

2:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Albert Tumenov	16 / 41	32 / 67	1 / 1
1	Ildemar Alcantara	6 / 16	12 / 23	2 / 2
2	Albert Tumenov	6 / 8	8 / 10	0 / 0
2	Ildemar Alcantara	25 / 27	44 / 48	2 / 4
3	Albert Tumenov	10 / 22	10 / 22	0 / 0
3	Ildemar Alcantara	19 / 44	19 / 44	0 / 1

Ildemar Alcantara

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7

Albert Tumenov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8