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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ikram Aliskerov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1546

Elo1489

Ikram AliskerovvsWarlley AlvesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Saturday, October 21, 2023Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Ikram Aliskerov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:07

Style matchupIkram Aliskerov: WrestlervsWarlley Alves: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ikram Aliskerov wins(85.0%)

Actual result: Ikram Aliskerov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ikram Aliskerov at -700 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ikram Aliskerov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Warlley Alves enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ikram Aliskerov has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ikram Aliskerov (53.5%).
Ikram Aliskerov has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ikram Aliskerov

Red Corner

Warlley Alves

Blue Corner

-700

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+500

(17%)

1546

Elo

1489

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ikram AliskerovW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Phil Hawes · May 23

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jun 24

KOvs Andre Muniz · Apr 25

vs JunYong Park · Oct 25

DECvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 26

latest

Warlley AlvesL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Randy Brown · Nov 19

KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23

vs Abus Magomedov · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ikram AliskerovMetricWarlley Alves

6.86

Strikes / min

3.04

5.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.95

41%

Strike defense

50%

3.20

TDs / 15 min

1.22

100%

Takedown defense

62%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 2.30 — meaningful gap-0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ikram AliskerovWarlley Alves

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ikram Aliskerov(6 fights)Warlley Alves(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.1|Blue -57.1

Recent Form

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ikram AliskerovTargetWarlley Alves

By target zone

69% acc · 77%

Head

50% acc · 25%

100% acc · 23%

Body

100% acc · 8%

0% acc

Leg

89% acc · 67%

By position

72% acc · 100%

Distance

75% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ikram Aliskerov rounds

even

Warlley Alves rounds

Round 1Ikram Aliskerov edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 36

Sig Strikes

12 / 16

72%

Sig Str %

75%

26 / 36

Total Strikes

12 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Warlley Alves	12 / 16	12 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Ikram Aliskerov	26 / 36	26 / 36	0 / 0	0

Ikram Aliskerov

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16