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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Ikram Aliskerov won · U-DEC R3
Elo1546
Ikram Aliskerov editorial illustration
Elo1510

Ikram AliskerovvsJunYong ParkUFC Prediction Result

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Saturday, October 25, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Ikram Aliskerov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIkram Aliskerov: WrestlervsJunYong Park: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ikram Aliskerov wins(77.9%)

Actual result: Ikram Aliskerov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ikram Aliskerov at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • JunYong Park has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Ikram Aliskerov has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ikram Aliskerov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ikram Aliskerov
Red Corner
VS
JunYong Park
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
1546
Elo
1510
33
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ikram AliskerovW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Phil Hawes · May 23
W
KOvs Warlley Alves · Oct 23
L
KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jun 24
W
KOvs Andre Muniz · Apr 25
W
DECvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 26
latest
JunYong ParkW2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Denis Tiuliulin · Feb 23
W
SUBvs Albert Duraev · Jul 23
L
vs Andre Muniz · Dec 23
W
vs Brad Tavares · Oct 24
W
vs Ismail Naurdiev · Jun 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ikram AliskerovMetricJunYong Park
6.86
Strikes / min
4.64
5.47
Strikes absorbed / min
3.82
41%
Strike defense
51%
3.20
TDs / 15 min
1.69
100%
Takedown defense
54%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.39evenly matched on net striking+0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1547 vs 1574Strikes6.9 vs 4.6Takedowns3.2 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.80Form0.6 vs 0.8
Ikram AliskerovJunYong Park

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901508152515431560← oldermost recent →
Ikram Aliskerov(6 fights)JunYong Park(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +36.7|Blue -36.7
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ikram AliskerovTargetJunYong Park

By target zone

57
61% acc · 63%
Head
57
53% acc · 73%
26
90% acc · 29%
Body
18
90% acc · 23%
8
73% acc · 9%
Leg
3
75% acc · 4%

By position

79
66% acc · 87%
Distance
73
57% acc · 94%
3
75% acc · 3%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 3%
9
90% acc · 10%
Ground
3
100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Ikram Aliskerov rounds
0
even
0
JunYong Park rounds
Round 1Ikram Aliskerov edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns2
Control0:36
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Ikram Aliskerov edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns1
Control2:05
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 3Ikram Aliskerov edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns2
Control3:26
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
91 / 134
Sig Strikes
78 / 132
67%
Sig Str %
58.3%
126 / 174
Total Strikes
91 / 151
5 / 7
TDs
0 / 0
72%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
6:07
Ctrl Time
0:19

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1JunYong Park17 / 4318 / 440 / 00
1Ikram Aliskerov35 / 4637 / 482 / 20
2JunYong Park38 / 5542 / 600 / 00
2Ikram Aliskerov35 / 5246 / 661 / 20
3JunYong Park23 / 3431 / 470 / 00
3Ikram Aliskerov21 / 3643 / 602 / 30

Ikram Aliskerov

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights6

JunYong Park

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9