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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ike Villanueva won · KO/TKO

Elo1422

Elo1394

Ike VillanuevavsVinicius MoreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · Wednesday, January 20, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Ike Villanueva won

KO/TKO

Style matchupIke Villanueva: Well-roundedvsVinicius Moreira: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Vinicius Moreira wins(74.7%)

Actual result: Ike Villanueva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vinicius Moreira at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ike Villanueva enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Vinicius Moreira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ike Villanueva is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Vinicius Moreira has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Ike Villanueva has 100pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ike Villanueva

Red Corner

Vinicius Moreira

Blue Corner

-134

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1422

Elo

1394

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ike VillanuevaL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chase Sherman · May 20

KOvs Jordan Wright · Aug 20

KOvs Marcin Prachnio · Jun 21

KOvs Nicolae Negumereanu · Oct 21

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Apr 22

latest

Vinicius MoreiraL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Jan 19

KOvs Eryk Anders · Jun 19

SUBvs Paul Craig · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ike VillanuevaMetricVinicius Moreira

3.66

Strikes / min

3.15

7.24

Strikes absorbed / min

5.07

36%

Strike defense

43%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

1.97

100%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.58Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap-1.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ike VillanuevaVinicius Moreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ike Villanueva(6 fights)Vinicius Moreira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.8|Blue -27.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -336.0|Blue +336.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ike VillanuevaTargetVinicius Moreira

By target zone

38% acc · 75%

Head

40% acc · 17%

67% acc · 25%

Body

56% acc · 42%

Leg

71% acc · 42%

By position

43% acc · 100%

Distance

56% acc · 96%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ike Villanueva rounds

even

Vinicius Moreira rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ike Villanueva edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 56

Sig Strikes

24 / 42

46%

Sig Str %

44.5%

24 / 56

Total Strikes

24 / 42

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vinicius Moreira	22 / 34	22 / 34	0 / 0
1	Ike Villanueva	21 / 50	21 / 50	0 / 0
2	Vinicius Moreira	2 / 8	2 / 8	0 / 0
2	Ike Villanueva	3 / 6	3 / 6	0 / 0

Ike Villanueva

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Vinicius Moreira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4